Poll history suggests McCain too far behind
Obama is now leading by 7 percentage points
That is the question facing strategists in both parties three weeks before Election Day. History suggests the answer is, probably.
Obama has already made history as the first black to become a major-party nominee for president. But his breakthrough represents a wild card that could yield election returns at odds with poll results. Beyond that, McCain's hopes rest on capturing the support of undecided voters, as well as shaking loose some voters who support his Democratic rival.
No one, including Obama's advisers, says such a turnaround in McCain's favor is impossible. But the magnitude of McCain's task may leave him depending on a misstep by Obama or a national security crisis rather than on what he can achieve through speeches, advertising or a winning performance in the final debate on Wednesday.
In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. McCain's deficit in that survey has remained 7 percentage points or more for most of the past two weeks.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
In 1968, Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey all but erased a 12-point early-October deficit before losing narrowly to Richard M. Nixon. In 2000, Vice President Al Gore wiped out a 7-point deficit in the final 10 days of the election, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College to Bush.
But since polling began, the pattern is that swings in opinion get smaller as election approaches and voters gather more information. As American politics have grown more polarized, the opportunity for large swings has become smaller still.
Four years ago, Sen. John Kerry trailed Bush slightly in the homestretch. A near-even split on Election Day among the few remaining undecided voters sealed Kerry's defeat.
"There appears to be more flex in the current electorate than in 2004, but less than in 2000," said Richard Johnston, research director of the National Annenberg Election Survey, at the University of Pennsylvania.
McCain's strategists acknowledge that for a realistic chance to win the election through battleground states, McCain must reduce Obama's advantage in the national popular vote to no more than 3 or 4 percentage points.
Recent comments
"It reminds me of Milli Vanilli winning the 1990 Best New Artist…
Concerned citizen | Oct. 15, 2008 at 4:08 p.m.
If Barack Obama wins this election, you can blame all the "Republicans…
Dont Blame Me | Oct. 14, 2008 at 1:35 p.m.
Wow! I think 90% of the above posts are from a single, highly-caffeinated…
Take a breath | Oct. 14, 2008 at 10:07 a.m.
